Connor, I remember when the “death of the dollar” was predicted back in the 60’s, when I was in college. I think some people have been making this prediction for decades, and yet it hasn’t happened.

I asked my son (40-ish now) about this continuing fear, and he replied,

“I used to buy into the whole ‘dollar is going to collapse’ thing, back when I was in college [in the 80's]. It’s a bunch of stuff that sounds neat in theory, but somehow the theory never makes predictions that come true. It’s focusing on one tiny thing and ignoring all the countervailing forces.

Even if the Euro does overtake the dollar as the currency in which oil is bought, it will not lead to the sudden collapse of the dollar. If, as [they say], it’s “all about the money,” [they're]forgetting about all those ‘foreign interests’ who have been buying up our treasury bonds and our stock and our land — all of which are demoninated in dollars. If the dollar collapses, all of that becomes almost worthless, and the shadowy powers that are running things behind the scenes wouldn’t allow that, would they?”

Now, if the Brethren speak up in General Conference this weekend, and advise us to invest in Euros, I am ready to revise my opinion immediately!

The brethren will NOT talk about the Euro or the SPP in conference. Neither will our elected representatives. To wait for someone to speak out on such matters is ill-advised.

We are so insulated as Americans to the value of our dollar. We mistakenly go on living believing all is well, because we still can buy our stuff. But, I am more than a little concerned because I have seen my dollar grow more and more worthless since the “financially responsible” Republicans have taken over. In October of 2001, I travelled to Europe, and the Euro was just being introduced. My dollar bought me 1.15 Euros. Again in summer of 2004, I travelled again to Europe, and my same dollar only bought 0.85 Euros. Today, if you look at the exchange rates, my dollar would only buy me 0.748 Euros. So, within the space of about 6 years, my dollar is actually worth about 40% less! (As our dollar becomes more and more worthless, it costs us more dollars to buy our imported oil, gas, cars, IPods, etc.)

So, I am concerned that our economy is going to go belly-up, partially because I can read the scriptures. You ought to study the whole chapter of Revelation 18. After studying that chapter, I wonder if you will then be able to proclaim All is Well in Zion.

I agree that the Brethern are unlikely to give specific financial guidance, Connor.

In the latest information, recently updated on the Internet, about family preparedness, the advice is very simple: Have enough drinking water to last through a temporary disruption of delivery; build up a three-month supply of everyday food; “For longer-term needs, and where permitted, gradually build a supply of food that will last a long time and that you can use to stay alive, such as wheat, white rice, and beans;” and finally, “Establish a financial reserve by saving a little money each week and gradually increasing it to a reasonable amount.”

As befits a word-wide church, the financial advice is very generic, and thus is useful to everyone, no matter where they live, or how much income they have.

You may well be right about imminent demise of the dollar, Connor. I certainly believe that is is wise to have diversified assets. I guess I would worry more about the dire predictions now if I hadn’t been reading different versions of them for over forty years.

RoAnn, even more confusing to me has been my observation that the church now places LESS emphasis on these basic principles of provident living (food storage, debt) than in years past. I imagine we will not hear very many references to provident living this weekend in GC. I have talked to a number of Stake Presidencies and Bishoprics about this very subject. I asked them when a new convert to the Gospel was supposed to be introduced to the concept of home storage and production. There SEEMS to be an agreement among many that these issues are supposed to be preached on a local level as fits the situation. Some countries have laws against food storage, some wards are singles or young adult wards, etc. This seems consistent with our Church becoming a world-wide church.

The Church has not abandoned these doctrines, though. You were wise to visit the Church’s website for more guidance. We each as Saints need to assess our own individual situation and see if we are living providently in accordance with the Church’s general principles of welfare.

Kelly (#3) I would certainly never say, “all is well in Zion,” or even in the U. S.

However, I have lived in 11 different countries over the last forty-five years, and have seen the dollar gain and lose value many, many times vs. other currencies. Those fluctuations are historically quite common. Sometimes I think we tend to remember when we travel and find things expensive elsewhere, and forget about all the “bargains” we purchased at other times.

Remember a few years ago when we were told by some that Japan was going to overtake us economically? Then came their serious financial problems. Now there are predictions that Japan will be in dire straits soon because their birth rate is below replacement level, and there will be fewer and fewer workers to support an increasingly aging popluation.

Europe will be facing similar problems, complicated by an increasing Muslim percentage in their population.
All is not well in the rest of the world, either. So the dollar may be able to keep pace with the Euro in the long term, after all.

The countries I now most see mentioned as real economic long term threats to the U.S. are China and India. There are so many variables to consider regarding those two countries that it’s hard to say how things will sort out in the next few years.

We bought some gold as a hedge against inflation many years ago. It has kept pace, but not done as well as most of the stocks we purchased. Diversification in stocks, bonds, and real estate still seems like good investing advice to me.

RoAnn, interesting observations you make. The threats you point out from India and China are some I don’t have direct experience with, like I have with Europe. You are correct about currencies fluctuating, and the reason that the dollar has not lost even MORE value against the Euro in the past 6 years is because the European economy is also hurting. It’s just that Europe’s economy is not sliding as fast as USA’s economy. In reality, I think it’s correct to say that India’s and China’s economies are playing a role against both ours and Europe’s.

All just further evidence of wisdom in the Church’s doctrines of getting our houses in order. Also all just further evidence for Connor’s argument that our fiddling with the Middle East is really only an effort to keep our dollar hegemony.

Gold is aproaching an all time high because people are scared the dollar is going to crash. Isn’t this similar to what happened in 1979? I hope the dollar sticks around. I don’t want to know what’s going to happen to the world’s economy if the dollar crashes. However, the federal reserve has recently made the decision to no longer publish the amount of dollars it prints yearly (will no longer publish m3). With news like that, there’s no stopping the inflation rate. I guess all I have to say is that I wouldn’t be surprized if the dollar goes way down south over the next 20 years.

Then Iran is ripe for attack after this bit of news:

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=ECO&artid=121120